I'm calling it right now. Ryan Howard will win the 2009 NL MVP. I know it's a little early, we're still in February. But after the Phillies skipped another painful arbitration and gave Ryan Howard a three-year contract, I'm expecting big things.
Granted, predicting Howard will win the MVP isn't the most dramatic prediction one could make. He's already got one under his belt and he finished second in the voting last year. But this year will be different, and here's why:
Howard has been criticized the last two years for his dip in batting average. It often looked as if he was trying to crush every pitch a mile out of the ballpark, as if he was in a home run derby, despite the fact that he has the raw strength and power send one deep with less effort. He also tried to pull the ball a lot more than he had in the past.
His increased tendency to pull the ball is reflected in his splits from the past few seasons. In 2006, Howard pulled the ball in 31% of his at-bats. In 2007, it increased to 35%, then it dropped to 33% in 2008. That doesn't sound like so much. In fact, if anything, it sounds like random fluctuation.
However, his percentage of at-bats in which the ball went to the opposite field is a more telling statistic. In 2006 he hit the ball to the opposite field in 20% of his at-bats. In '07 and '08, that drops to 14% and 15%, respectively. Howard may not have pulled as many balls last year as he did in 2007, but he certainly wasn't hitting to the opposite field the way he was in 2006.
Okay, so now I've given a statistical reason for Howard's drop-off in performance from his MVP season, but I haven't given for the change in his hitting style. Well, that much is up for debate. I've heard only two compelling arguments for why Howard has hit less to the opposite field in the past two years than he did earlier in his career.
The first argument is that pitchers have adjusted to him. Some say that pitchers have "figured out" Howard and they know that they can pitch him inside, often inducing strikeouts with down-and-in breaking balls. I have no doubt that this is a strategy used against Howard, as its proven to be fairly effective. And pitching him inside would force him to pull more balls.
Here's the problem: this is not an overly complicated strategy. It's one that could have (and would have) been established and used very early on in his career if it were that simple. Maybe 50 years ago this would not be the case, but with the technology available today and the amount of film study that goes into game preparation, I have a hard time believing that teams just perked up in April 2007 and said "Just pitch him inside...duh."
Howard was at his best in terms of batting average during the first two years of his career. He hit .288 in 2005 and .313 in 2006. I'd be willing to believe that opposing teams hadn't "figured out" Howard through the 2005 season, but if it was really as simple as that, one has to think that such a strategy would have been employed by the end of 2006.
And yet Howard's 2006 splits suggest just the opposite. He actually got better as he went along. His OPS increased in each of the final three months of the 2006 season (July - 1.004, August - 1.214, Sept/Oct - 1.312) and he posted an absurd .385 batting average in the season's final month. If teams didn't know how to deal with him by then, why would that all drastically change during the winter of '06-07?
So this is where the other theory of Howard's performance comes in. It's all psychological. The 2007 and 2008 seasons were contract years for Howard. Many players perform better in contract years, anticipating the upcoming payday (see: Ramirez, Manny), but that never seemed to be the case for Howard. Everything I've read about him suggests that he struggles with having to prove his value and his reaction is to try to hit more home runs. This was even an issue in college. Howard pressed, hoping to increase his draft status, but instead his production fell off and he slipped to the fifth round (lucky for the Phillies).
If this is an accurate portrayal of how Howard thinks and operates (and to be fair it may not be, as I don't know Howard personally nor do I possess a degree in sports psychology), the Phillies should get more than their money's worth. Especially in 2009. One could argue that Howard will again press, trying to prove to the fans that he is worth the lavish contract, but really what does he have to prove? He already has an MVP trophy and he finished second in the voting last year. He will make $15 million this season (just $1 million more than the Phillies initially offered in arbitration) and he plays for the reigning World Champion. Sure, if he hits .200 in April he might hear some boos; this is Philadelphia after all, but he is in a perfect situation to have another season of 50+ home runs and, perhaps more significantly, get that average back in the .280's.
October is a long way away and who knows what will happen, but if Howard should take home his second MVP trophy, well, you heard it here first.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Friday, December 12, 2008
So Long Pat
When Pat Burrell stepped to the plate in the seventh inning of Game 5 of the 2008 World Series, with the game tied 3-3, he had yet to register a single hit in the series. In fact, he was on the verge of setting a record for World Series futility, and at 0 for 14 would have had the most World Series at-bats without a hit.
But when the Phillies needed him most, Pat the Bat was there. Burrell crushed a pitch from J.P. Howell to deep center field and it came oh-so-close to leaving the ballpark. Burrell thought it was out and lackadaisically ran the bases, but instead it hit high off the wall and evaded center fielder B.J. Upton. Burrell strolled into second for a double.
Any Phillies fan could tell you what happened next. Eric Bruntlett came in to pinch run and, one out later, Pedro Feliz singled up the middle, driving in the decisive run in the game that clinched the second World Championship in Phillies history.
One would think Burrell's late-inning heroics would have been touted as soon as the dust settled and he stood on second base. But no, instead the talk was of what Burrell's hit wasn't. Had Burrell run hard out of the batter's box, it could've been a triple. Or if it was hit just a little further, it could've been a home run. That double pretty much sums up Burrell's career with the Phillies. It was never about what he did. It was about what he didn't do, or what he could've done.
After Burrell burst onto the scene in 2002 with 37 home runs and 116 RBI, Phillies fans expected him to become the next great power hitter. He was supposed to hit 40-50 home runs a year and drive in 120 RBI. That never happened, in fact, Burrell's 2002 season would be the best of his career (to date).
While Burrell never became an MVP-caliber player, he was in many ways the backbone of this Phillies team. Or better yet, the foundation. Burrell was the longest-tenured Phillie, having come up in the 2000 season. (That distinction now belongs to Jimmy Rollins.) While he was never a superstar, or even an All-Star, he consistently got on base and hit for power.
In 2000, Burrell's rookie year, the Phillies finished dead last in the NL East. But things got better from there. The team finished 2nd in 2001 and placed no worse than 3rd every year from 2001 on. Was Burrell fully responsible for turning the team's fortunes around? No, but he was certainly a big part of it.
He never made the flashy plays; in fact what he was most known for involved little to no movement: drawing walks and called third strikes. But that was what made Burrell so valuable. He took pitch after pitch and, just when you thought he was asleep standing up in the batter's box, he would lash a double down the line, or a home run to deep left.
And that's why that Game 5 double epitomizes him. Burrell didn't drive in the winning run, or even score it. Instead he set it up; he laid the foundation for the game-winning hit, just as he helped lay the foundation for the success of the Phillies franchise.
Now, with the signing of Raul Ibanez, Burrell's Phillies days are over. Hopefully the Phillies can replace his offensive production, but it won't be easy. So long Pat, you will be missed.
But when the Phillies needed him most, Pat the Bat was there. Burrell crushed a pitch from J.P. Howell to deep center field and it came oh-so-close to leaving the ballpark. Burrell thought it was out and lackadaisically ran the bases, but instead it hit high off the wall and evaded center fielder B.J. Upton. Burrell strolled into second for a double.
Any Phillies fan could tell you what happened next. Eric Bruntlett came in to pinch run and, one out later, Pedro Feliz singled up the middle, driving in the decisive run in the game that clinched the second World Championship in Phillies history.
One would think Burrell's late-inning heroics would have been touted as soon as the dust settled and he stood on second base. But no, instead the talk was of what Burrell's hit wasn't. Had Burrell run hard out of the batter's box, it could've been a triple. Or if it was hit just a little further, it could've been a home run. That double pretty much sums up Burrell's career with the Phillies. It was never about what he did. It was about what he didn't do, or what he could've done.
After Burrell burst onto the scene in 2002 with 37 home runs and 116 RBI, Phillies fans expected him to become the next great power hitter. He was supposed to hit 40-50 home runs a year and drive in 120 RBI. That never happened, in fact, Burrell's 2002 season would be the best of his career (to date).
While Burrell never became an MVP-caliber player, he was in many ways the backbone of this Phillies team. Or better yet, the foundation. Burrell was the longest-tenured Phillie, having come up in the 2000 season. (That distinction now belongs to Jimmy Rollins.) While he was never a superstar, or even an All-Star, he consistently got on base and hit for power.
In 2000, Burrell's rookie year, the Phillies finished dead last in the NL East. But things got better from there. The team finished 2nd in 2001 and placed no worse than 3rd every year from 2001 on. Was Burrell fully responsible for turning the team's fortunes around? No, but he was certainly a big part of it.
He never made the flashy plays; in fact what he was most known for involved little to no movement: drawing walks and called third strikes. But that was what made Burrell so valuable. He took pitch after pitch and, just when you thought he was asleep standing up in the batter's box, he would lash a double down the line, or a home run to deep left.
And that's why that Game 5 double epitomizes him. Burrell didn't drive in the winning run, or even score it. Instead he set it up; he laid the foundation for the game-winning hit, just as he helped lay the foundation for the success of the Phillies franchise.
Now, with the signing of Raul Ibanez, Burrell's Phillies days are over. Hopefully the Phillies can replace his offensive production, but it won't be easy. So long Pat, you will be missed.
Phils Add Ibanez; Kiss Burrell Goodbye
If anyone out there thought that Pat Burrell's postseason heroics would earn him a contract extension, they were wrong. The Phillies ended any pursuit of Pat the Bat today, as it's been announced that they will sign Raul Ibanez.
On the surface, this seems like a reasonable deal. Ibanez was not terribly expensive (3 years/$30 million) and has been one of the most consistent outfielders in baseball over the last few seasons. As ESPN's article mentions, he is one of only five outfielders who has had 100+ RBI in each of the last three seasons. He's also stayed healthy for the bulk of his career. He has had just one stint on the DL, which came in 2004. Ibanez should be expected to improve on last year's .293/23/110 by virtue of playing in a better hiter's park with better hitters around him.
The thing is...Ibanez will be 37 in June. He hasn't shown any signs of slowing down in the last few years (if anything he's improved), but then again, did Geoff Jenkins? Perhaps it's unfair to compare Ibanez to Jenkins before he even steps into the batter's box at CBP, but his age has to be a concern. Even if he doesn't struggle this year, how long can he be expected to produce at a high level? He'll be 40 in the last year of his contract.
One also has to wonder how Ibanez fits into the Phillies lineup. They were already overloaded from the left side of the plate and now, instead of adding a right-handed bat to make up for the loss of Burrell, they bring in the left-handed Ibanez, who has fared considerably worse against left-handed pitching. Maybe that won't matter that much (after all, the two closers the Mets just added are both right-handed), but the Phillies will have to hope that Ibanez and Jayson Werth can make up for Burrell's lost production.
(I'll have more to say on Burrell later. He's had a long tenure with the franchise and one that deserves more than a closing paragraph in an article about his replacement.)
Recently, the Phillies also added a backup catcher in Ronny Paulino. All they gave up for him was Jason Jaramillo, so it's hard to find too much fault with the deal, but one has to wonder just what the point was. Paulino was an atrocious hitter last year, with a .212 batting average and a .277 OBP, but that may have been due, in part, to a lack of playing time. He only appeared in 40 games in 2008. In 2006 and 2007, he hit .310 and .263 respectively and showed a little bit of pop, hitting a combined 17 home runs.
Paulino will compete for playing time with the now-fortified Carlos Ruiz. (Ironic that while Burrell's postseason performance earned him a one-way ticket out of town, Ruiz and his .219 batting average of 2008 now has the catcher position locked down. Then again, he was AMAZING in the World Series. Well, amazing for Carlos Ruiz anyway.) Ruiz has the clear edge thanks to his game-calling ability and his surprising display of offense in the World Series, and he and Paulino will likely split time behind the plate.
There are two problems with this. First, isn't this the exact same situation in which Paulino struggled last year? It would seem that he needs to play regularly to be effective. Then again, 2 1/2 years isn't much of a sample size. Second, what happens to Lou Marson? He seemed ready and willing to take over the catcher position after an outstanding season in AA, capped off by his first major league home run in the regular season finale. I guess one more year in the minors can't hurt him, but it can hurt the Phillies chances at a repeat.
On the surface, this seems like a reasonable deal. Ibanez was not terribly expensive (3 years/$30 million) and has been one of the most consistent outfielders in baseball over the last few seasons. As ESPN's article mentions, he is one of only five outfielders who has had 100+ RBI in each of the last three seasons. He's also stayed healthy for the bulk of his career. He has had just one stint on the DL, which came in 2004. Ibanez should be expected to improve on last year's .293/23/110 by virtue of playing in a better hiter's park with better hitters around him.
The thing is...Ibanez will be 37 in June. He hasn't shown any signs of slowing down in the last few years (if anything he's improved), but then again, did Geoff Jenkins? Perhaps it's unfair to compare Ibanez to Jenkins before he even steps into the batter's box at CBP, but his age has to be a concern. Even if he doesn't struggle this year, how long can he be expected to produce at a high level? He'll be 40 in the last year of his contract.
One also has to wonder how Ibanez fits into the Phillies lineup. They were already overloaded from the left side of the plate and now, instead of adding a right-handed bat to make up for the loss of Burrell, they bring in the left-handed Ibanez, who has fared considerably worse against left-handed pitching. Maybe that won't matter that much (after all, the two closers the Mets just added are both right-handed), but the Phillies will have to hope that Ibanez and Jayson Werth can make up for Burrell's lost production.
(I'll have more to say on Burrell later. He's had a long tenure with the franchise and one that deserves more than a closing paragraph in an article about his replacement.)
Recently, the Phillies also added a backup catcher in Ronny Paulino. All they gave up for him was Jason Jaramillo, so it's hard to find too much fault with the deal, but one has to wonder just what the point was. Paulino was an atrocious hitter last year, with a .212 batting average and a .277 OBP, but that may have been due, in part, to a lack of playing time. He only appeared in 40 games in 2008. In 2006 and 2007, he hit .310 and .263 respectively and showed a little bit of pop, hitting a combined 17 home runs.
Paulino will compete for playing time with the now-fortified Carlos Ruiz. (Ironic that while Burrell's postseason performance earned him a one-way ticket out of town, Ruiz and his .219 batting average of 2008 now has the catcher position locked down. Then again, he was AMAZING in the World Series. Well, amazing for Carlos Ruiz anyway.) Ruiz has the clear edge thanks to his game-calling ability and his surprising display of offense in the World Series, and he and Paulino will likely split time behind the plate.
There are two problems with this. First, isn't this the exact same situation in which Paulino struggled last year? It would seem that he needs to play regularly to be effective. Then again, 2 1/2 years isn't much of a sample size. Second, what happens to Lou Marson? He seemed ready and willing to take over the catcher position after an outstanding season in AA, capped off by his first major league home run in the regular season finale. I guess one more year in the minors can't hurt him, but it can hurt the Phillies chances at a repeat.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Meet Your 2008 World Champions! (Live)
When we last saw our heroes they had just fallen victim to the elements and allowed the Rays to tie Game 5 of the World Series at 2-2. Now the Phillies resume the first suspended game in World Series history, starting in the bottom of the sixth. Hamels is due to bat first, but will almost certainly be replaced by a pinch hitter. Could that mean he's available for Game 7? Well, it shouldn't have to come to that. Whether or not it does depends on the two teams' bullpens. That seems to favor the Phillies, but who knows any more. We'll find out shortly.
8:38: As we start the bottom of the sixth (finally!), it's Grant Balfour against Geoff Jenkins. Good move by Manuel. Jenkins is expendable should the Rays counter with a lefty.
8:42: And Jenkins delivers! He hammers a double to the gap in right center. The ball looked playable for Baldelli, but he couldn't quite track it. Rollins follows with a sac bunt and the Phillies have a runner on third with one out.
8:46: And Werth comes up big! He lofts a pop-up into shallow center, which would have been a routine out, but the infield was in and Iwanura can't hang on. Remember when he was part of that stellar Rays defense? Neither does he. Phillies lead 3-2 and Joe Maddon turns to the bullpen after just one out from Balfour. J.P. Howell comes in to face Utley.
8:54: Utley goes down swinging on three pitches and now Howard comes up, trying to extend the lead. Joe Buck mentions Howard's prior Game 5 stats as if that part of the game wasn't played 48 hours ago. Howell has Werth picked off before throwing a single pitch to Howard, but Carlos Pena's throw is off the mark and Werth slides safely into second. However, it won't matter as Howard pops out to Evan Longoria to end it.
8:59: The Phillies turn to Madson an inning earlier than usual and it pays off...for the first out. Baldelli takes Madson deep to tie the game. Sigh...no one ever said this would be easy.
9:03: Bartlett singles and Maddon leaves Howell in to bunt, which is fine by me. If they want to give up an out to keep a mediocre reliever in the game than so be it. Especially now that the Phillies best lefties have already batted. Howell lays down the sacrifice and Manuel calls Romero in to face Iwanura.
9:07: Iwanura hits an almost perfectly placed grounder up the middle, but Utley tracks it down. Realizing he has no play at first, he fires home in time to nail Bartlett. Wow. Potential game-saving play right there.
9:09: I'm still in awe of that Utley play. How many second basemen in the league make that play? I'm not talking about athletic ability, but having the baseball IQ and instincts to make a play like that is just phenomenal. You also have to love the pump fake to first. Maybe I should be praising his football IQ instead.
9:11: Burrell starts off the bottom of the seventh with a bang. He comes oh-so-close to a home run, but instead the ball bounces high off the wall and Burrell trots into second with a double. Eric Bruntlett comes in to pinch run and, if all goes well, that would be Burrell's only hit of the series. That man just knows how to pick his spots. I guarantee no one will remember his previous 0 for everything if the Phillies win tonight.
9:15: Tim McCarver criticizes Burrell for not getting a triple. I'm sorry but I'm changing Tim's last name from McCarver to McFly. Hello?? Is anyone in there? Come on McFly, Burrell wasn't getting to third unless there was a contract extension waiting for him. And even then...
9:18: Victorino tries to lay down a bunt but instead gets two strikes. So he does it the old fashioned way, chopping a grounder to first and advancing the runner. Now it's up to Feliz to bring in Bruntlett. Gulp.
9:20: And Feliz comes through, lacing a single up the middle and scoring Bruntlett. What is it with these Phillies? All the regular season goats have become post-season heroes. Speaking of which, here's Carlos Ruiz.
9:22: Ruiz smokes one up the middle, but Iwanura makes an outstanding diving stop and gets the force at second. Romero bats for himself, as the Phillies need someone to pitch the eighth (someone not named Chad Durbin). To his credit, he makes contact, grounding out to second to end the inning. Once again the Phillies have a one-run lead. Can they hold it this time?
9:29: Well so much for that letting Romero bat strategy. Carl Crawford works a full count, then singles into center. And just as I say that, B.J. Upton hits into a tailor-made 6-4-3 double play. We're one out away from Lidge, folks.
9:32: Romero falls behind Pena, missing the first three pitches badly, but he recovers and Pena lines the 3-1 pitch out to left.
9:38: David Price comes in to pitch for the Rays. Price has shown that he has filthy stuff, but also that he's very wild. Rollins belts the 2-0 pitch to deep left, but the wind knocks it down and it settles into Crawford's glove for the first out. FOX shows us the last titles won by Philadelphia teams, painfully omitting the team that broke the curse. The Philadelphia Soul! Come on Joe Buck, throw Bon Jovi a bone!
9:39: Werth goes down looking and FOX reminds us of the curse of William Penn, despite the fact that THE SOUL BROKE THE CURSE! Somewhere in the night Bon Jovi softly weeps.
9:43: Utley walks and then steals second, which is all well and good, but likely useless because Howard would need a hit to score him. I'm feeling a strikeout or a walk here. Then again, if he walks, Bruntlett looms on deck. He homered off Price last time they met. But it won't matter as Howard strikes out. (P.S. I never thought I'd use the words "Bruntlett" and "looms" in the same sentence, except to say "Pat Burrell looms over Charlie Manuel menacingly as he prepares to insert the pinch runner, Eric Bruntlett.") On to the ninth we go.
9:47: Brad Lidge, it's time to choose your fate. Will you be Tug McGraw or another Phillies closer who will remain nameless?
9:50: Longoria pops out to Utley. One down.
9:52: Navarro goes down 0-2, but gets a broken bat single to right field. Maddon inserts Fernando Perez to pinch run. I somehow doubt Lidge is overly concerned about the baserunner. That's fine. Get them at the plate.
9:54: Perez steals second, to no one's surprise.
9:55: Lidge flirts with disaster, as Ben Zobrist hits a liner to right that is snared by Werth. Now Eric Hinske comes up, pinch hitting for Bartlett. One out away.
9:58: Hinske strikes out! Ballgame! Go crazy Phillies fans! It's all over! Lidge strikes out Hinske to end the game and the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2008 World Series! Time to get that champagne flowing!
8:38: As we start the bottom of the sixth (finally!), it's Grant Balfour against Geoff Jenkins. Good move by Manuel. Jenkins is expendable should the Rays counter with a lefty.
8:42: And Jenkins delivers! He hammers a double to the gap in right center. The ball looked playable for Baldelli, but he couldn't quite track it. Rollins follows with a sac bunt and the Phillies have a runner on third with one out.
8:46: And Werth comes up big! He lofts a pop-up into shallow center, which would have been a routine out, but the infield was in and Iwanura can't hang on. Remember when he was part of that stellar Rays defense? Neither does he. Phillies lead 3-2 and Joe Maddon turns to the bullpen after just one out from Balfour. J.P. Howell comes in to face Utley.
8:54: Utley goes down swinging on three pitches and now Howard comes up, trying to extend the lead. Joe Buck mentions Howard's prior Game 5 stats as if that part of the game wasn't played 48 hours ago. Howell has Werth picked off before throwing a single pitch to Howard, but Carlos Pena's throw is off the mark and Werth slides safely into second. However, it won't matter as Howard pops out to Evan Longoria to end it.
8:59: The Phillies turn to Madson an inning earlier than usual and it pays off...for the first out. Baldelli takes Madson deep to tie the game. Sigh...no one ever said this would be easy.
9:03: Bartlett singles and Maddon leaves Howell in to bunt, which is fine by me. If they want to give up an out to keep a mediocre reliever in the game than so be it. Especially now that the Phillies best lefties have already batted. Howell lays down the sacrifice and Manuel calls Romero in to face Iwanura.
9:07: Iwanura hits an almost perfectly placed grounder up the middle, but Utley tracks it down. Realizing he has no play at first, he fires home in time to nail Bartlett. Wow. Potential game-saving play right there.
9:09: I'm still in awe of that Utley play. How many second basemen in the league make that play? I'm not talking about athletic ability, but having the baseball IQ and instincts to make a play like that is just phenomenal. You also have to love the pump fake to first. Maybe I should be praising his football IQ instead.
9:11: Burrell starts off the bottom of the seventh with a bang. He comes oh-so-close to a home run, but instead the ball bounces high off the wall and Burrell trots into second with a double. Eric Bruntlett comes in to pinch run and, if all goes well, that would be Burrell's only hit of the series. That man just knows how to pick his spots. I guarantee no one will remember his previous 0 for everything if the Phillies win tonight.
9:15: Tim McCarver criticizes Burrell for not getting a triple. I'm sorry but I'm changing Tim's last name from McCarver to McFly. Hello?? Is anyone in there? Come on McFly, Burrell wasn't getting to third unless there was a contract extension waiting for him. And even then...
9:18: Victorino tries to lay down a bunt but instead gets two strikes. So he does it the old fashioned way, chopping a grounder to first and advancing the runner. Now it's up to Feliz to bring in Bruntlett. Gulp.
9:20: And Feliz comes through, lacing a single up the middle and scoring Bruntlett. What is it with these Phillies? All the regular season goats have become post-season heroes. Speaking of which, here's Carlos Ruiz.
9:22: Ruiz smokes one up the middle, but Iwanura makes an outstanding diving stop and gets the force at second. Romero bats for himself, as the Phillies need someone to pitch the eighth (someone not named Chad Durbin). To his credit, he makes contact, grounding out to second to end the inning. Once again the Phillies have a one-run lead. Can they hold it this time?
9:29: Well so much for that letting Romero bat strategy. Carl Crawford works a full count, then singles into center. And just as I say that, B.J. Upton hits into a tailor-made 6-4-3 double play. We're one out away from Lidge, folks.
9:32: Romero falls behind Pena, missing the first three pitches badly, but he recovers and Pena lines the 3-1 pitch out to left.
9:38: David Price comes in to pitch for the Rays. Price has shown that he has filthy stuff, but also that he's very wild. Rollins belts the 2-0 pitch to deep left, but the wind knocks it down and it settles into Crawford's glove for the first out. FOX shows us the last titles won by Philadelphia teams, painfully omitting the team that broke the curse. The Philadelphia Soul! Come on Joe Buck, throw Bon Jovi a bone!
9:39: Werth goes down looking and FOX reminds us of the curse of William Penn, despite the fact that THE SOUL BROKE THE CURSE! Somewhere in the night Bon Jovi softly weeps.
9:43: Utley walks and then steals second, which is all well and good, but likely useless because Howard would need a hit to score him. I'm feeling a strikeout or a walk here. Then again, if he walks, Bruntlett looms on deck. He homered off Price last time they met. But it won't matter as Howard strikes out. (P.S. I never thought I'd use the words "Bruntlett" and "looms" in the same sentence, except to say "Pat Burrell looms over Charlie Manuel menacingly as he prepares to insert the pinch runner, Eric Bruntlett.") On to the ninth we go.
9:47: Brad Lidge, it's time to choose your fate. Will you be Tug McGraw or another Phillies closer who will remain nameless?
9:50: Longoria pops out to Utley. One down.
9:52: Navarro goes down 0-2, but gets a broken bat single to right field. Maddon inserts Fernando Perez to pinch run. I somehow doubt Lidge is overly concerned about the baserunner. That's fine. Get them at the plate.
9:54: Perez steals second, to no one's surprise.
9:55: Lidge flirts with disaster, as Ben Zobrist hits a liner to right that is snared by Werth. Now Eric Hinske comes up, pinch hitting for Bartlett. One out away.
9:58: Hinske strikes out! Ballgame! Go crazy Phillies fans! It's all over! Lidge strikes out Hinske to end the game and the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2008 World Series! Time to get that champagne flowing!
Monday, October 27, 2008
Suspended Disbelief (Live)
Tonight Cole Hamels takes on Scott Kazmir as the Phillies look to win the second World Series in franchise history. Joe Buck tells us that the Rays will win because it looks like they won't. Great analysis.
8:32: FOX's profile on Cole Hamels says he "may never have this chance again." Does Hamels have a terminal illness and no one told us? So far he's put his imaginary disease behind him and set the Rays down in order in the 1st.
8:41: Jayson Werth walks and Chase Utley follows by not leaning away from an inside fastball. Two on and one out for Howard, who is on a tear of late.
8:44: Not this time, as Howard strikes out on a fastball. Now it's up to Pat Burrell to get the offense going. Great...
8:46: And Burrell does what he does best. Draws a walk on two borderline balls. Shane Victorino comes up with the bases loaded. We've seen that before. Will history repeat itself?
8:49: You can't spell victory with Victorino. Well....okay, you can. But why would you want to? Shane drives in a pair. Feliz singles doing his best Vlad Guerrero impression, but Burrell is too slow to score. Bases loaded for Carlos Ruiz and his .417 World Series batting average.
8:51: That average drops a bit with a fly out to left, but the Phillies have a 2-0 lead after one inning. Not too shabby.
8:55: Carlos Pena tries to bunt for a base hit and fails. The Rays are officially desperate. Evan Longoria hits a lazy fly to center on the next pitch. Hamels has recorded 5 outs in 9 pitches.
8:58: Navarro walks, but it's all for naught as Baldelli flies out to end the inning.
9:09: After Hamels and Rollins go down, Werth singles to the left side, but Utley flies out to end the inning.
9:16: Another easy inning for Hamels, despite allowing his first hit of the night. He's on cruise control at the moment.
9:22: Kazmir mows down the Phillies. He's gotten into a groove since giving up the lead in the first. The 2-0 lead seems pretty safe with Hamels on the mound, but I'd feel a little better if we could tack on a few more.
9:28: Pena doubles and Longoria singles him in for their first hits of the series. Phillies still lead 2-1, but we could really use that insurance now. Hamels pitches to Navarro, trying to get out of trouble.
9:31: Navarro works a 3-1 count, then grounds into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning. Hamels hit a bit of a rough patch there, but, hey, no one's perfect.
9:36: Ruiz continues to be randomly good at hitting, slapping a single to left. Hamels tries to sacrifice him over, but Kazmir fires to second for the force. Hamels appeared to get hit on the index finger of his left hand on one of his bunt attempts. That better not affect his pitching.
9:41: Rollins draws a walk after working a full count and now Werth is up with a chance to give Hamels a little breathing room.
9:46: Werth draws a walk after about a gazillion pitches and David Price gets going in the bullpen. Utley now up with the bases loaded.
9:49: After getting ahead 3-1 and taking a very borderline strike two, Utley grounds out to second to end the inning. So I guess we're back to that not hitting with runners on business.
9:56: Rollins loses a Baldelli pop-up in the wind and it drops for a base hit. A bit ominous, but really it just brings reminds us how awful this weather is. Of course, it doesn't matter as Utley turns a fantastic double play, tagging Baldelli out and firing to first. Kazmir then strikes out to end the top of the fifth.
10:06: And Kazmir's done for the night after walking Howard and Burrell, giving him 6 walks on the night. Now we get to the once-vaunted Rays bullpen...which has gotten worse as the series has gone on. Grant Balfour comes in to replace him. Last time we saw Balfour, he was losing Game 3. Let's see if Victorino can give him a good old Phillies greeting.
10:12: As Balfour warms up, FOX cuts to a shot of the Make a Wish foundation. Where's Cole Hamels? Isn't he dying too? Maybe starting in Game 5 WAS his wish. That's the only reason he's out there. The fact that he's the ace is merely coincidence.
10:18: Victorino and Feliz pop out and now it's up to Ruiz. Normally that would be a bad thing, but Balfour should be terrified right now. Or not. Ruiz follows suit and pops out for the third out.
10:24: FOX delivers a montage of horrible officiating, which is surprisingly satisfying. Yes, they have been awful.
10:37: Well it looks like the Phillies are actually going to have to hit a little. Pena singles in Upton and it's a tie game.
10:39: Longoria lines out to center to end the inning, but the damage was done. 2-2 game. Some offense would be nice.
10:42: Now we get a long overdue rain delay, which is good because the conditions are abysmal, but bad because...well it's just lame. I want baseball now!
Well so much for that. The game's been suspended. We'll resume coverage...whenever.
8:32: FOX's profile on Cole Hamels says he "may never have this chance again." Does Hamels have a terminal illness and no one told us? So far he's put his imaginary disease behind him and set the Rays down in order in the 1st.
8:41: Jayson Werth walks and Chase Utley follows by not leaning away from an inside fastball. Two on and one out for Howard, who is on a tear of late.
8:44: Not this time, as Howard strikes out on a fastball. Now it's up to Pat Burrell to get the offense going. Great...
8:46: And Burrell does what he does best. Draws a walk on two borderline balls. Shane Victorino comes up with the bases loaded. We've seen that before. Will history repeat itself?
8:49: You can't spell victory with Victorino. Well....okay, you can. But why would you want to? Shane drives in a pair. Feliz singles doing his best Vlad Guerrero impression, but Burrell is too slow to score. Bases loaded for Carlos Ruiz and his .417 World Series batting average.
8:51: That average drops a bit with a fly out to left, but the Phillies have a 2-0 lead after one inning. Not too shabby.
8:55: Carlos Pena tries to bunt for a base hit and fails. The Rays are officially desperate. Evan Longoria hits a lazy fly to center on the next pitch. Hamels has recorded 5 outs in 9 pitches.
8:58: Navarro walks, but it's all for naught as Baldelli flies out to end the inning.
9:09: After Hamels and Rollins go down, Werth singles to the left side, but Utley flies out to end the inning.
9:16: Another easy inning for Hamels, despite allowing his first hit of the night. He's on cruise control at the moment.
9:22: Kazmir mows down the Phillies. He's gotten into a groove since giving up the lead in the first. The 2-0 lead seems pretty safe with Hamels on the mound, but I'd feel a little better if we could tack on a few more.
9:28: Pena doubles and Longoria singles him in for their first hits of the series. Phillies still lead 2-1, but we could really use that insurance now. Hamels pitches to Navarro, trying to get out of trouble.
9:31: Navarro works a 3-1 count, then grounds into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning. Hamels hit a bit of a rough patch there, but, hey, no one's perfect.
9:36: Ruiz continues to be randomly good at hitting, slapping a single to left. Hamels tries to sacrifice him over, but Kazmir fires to second for the force. Hamels appeared to get hit on the index finger of his left hand on one of his bunt attempts. That better not affect his pitching.
9:41: Rollins draws a walk after working a full count and now Werth is up with a chance to give Hamels a little breathing room.
9:46: Werth draws a walk after about a gazillion pitches and David Price gets going in the bullpen. Utley now up with the bases loaded.
9:49: After getting ahead 3-1 and taking a very borderline strike two, Utley grounds out to second to end the inning. So I guess we're back to that not hitting with runners on business.
9:56: Rollins loses a Baldelli pop-up in the wind and it drops for a base hit. A bit ominous, but really it just brings reminds us how awful this weather is. Of course, it doesn't matter as Utley turns a fantastic double play, tagging Baldelli out and firing to first. Kazmir then strikes out to end the top of the fifth.
10:06: And Kazmir's done for the night after walking Howard and Burrell, giving him 6 walks on the night. Now we get to the once-vaunted Rays bullpen...which has gotten worse as the series has gone on. Grant Balfour comes in to replace him. Last time we saw Balfour, he was losing Game 3. Let's see if Victorino can give him a good old Phillies greeting.
10:12: As Balfour warms up, FOX cuts to a shot of the Make a Wish foundation. Where's Cole Hamels? Isn't he dying too? Maybe starting in Game 5 WAS his wish. That's the only reason he's out there. The fact that he's the ace is merely coincidence.
10:18: Victorino and Feliz pop out and now it's up to Ruiz. Normally that would be a bad thing, but Balfour should be terrified right now. Or not. Ruiz follows suit and pops out for the third out.
10:24: FOX delivers a montage of horrible officiating, which is surprisingly satisfying. Yes, they have been awful.
10:37: Well it looks like the Phillies are actually going to have to hit a little. Pena singles in Upton and it's a tie game.
10:39: Longoria lines out to center to end the inning, but the damage was done. 2-2 game. Some offense would be nice.
10:42: Now we get a long overdue rain delay, which is good because the conditions are abysmal, but bad because...well it's just lame. I want baseball now!
Well so much for that. The game's been suspended. We'll resume coverage...whenever.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Blanton Shows Poise and Power; Phils Up 3-1
Remember when the Phillies acquired Joe Blanton? The news wasn't exactly met with excitement and glee. The general consensus was that Blanton would be an upgrade over Adam Eaton (which isn't saying much), but it would not push the Phillies over the top.
Well Blanton aimed to prove otherwise last night and, well, I'm sold. Blanton stifled the Rays offense, allowing two runs over six innings and striking out seven. And as if that wasn't enough, he did some damage with the bat as well.
By the bottom of the fifth, Blanton had given up a pair of solo home runs, including a pinch hit homer to Eric Hinske in the top of the fifth. When Blanton stepped to the plate, there were two outs and the Phillies were just thinking about turning the batting order over for the sixth inning.
Blanton thought otherwise, crushing a fastball over the left field wall and in the process giving Rays' pitcher Edwin Jackson the most embarassing moment of his young career. It's not a stretch to say this was the biggest hit of Blanton's life, considering he hadn't hit a home run since high school.
Of course, Blanton wasn't the only one to deliver for the Phillies. Ryan Howard emerged onto the scene in a big way, blasting two home runs for 5 RBI. His first home run, a three-run shot in the fourth inning, gave the Phillies a commanding 5-1 lead. His second, a two-run bomb in the eighth, well, that was just for fun.
After struggling to capitalize with runners in scoring position, the Phillies finally put questions about their offense to rest, racking up 10 runs on four home runs. Meanwhile, the highly-touted Rays defense began to show cracks, as Akinori Iwanura committed two costly errors.
By winning the first two home games of the series, the Phillies have put themselves in great position to win the franchise's second title and the city's first since 1983. Cole Hamels takes the hill tomorrow against Scott Kazmir in a Game 1 rematch. That game went in the Phillies' favor and with the offense finally clicking, no one would be surprised to see Philadelphia close out the series in five games.
It should just be a matter of the Phillies keeping their composure, and no one has looked more composed this October than Cole Hamels.
Well Blanton aimed to prove otherwise last night and, well, I'm sold. Blanton stifled the Rays offense, allowing two runs over six innings and striking out seven. And as if that wasn't enough, he did some damage with the bat as well.
By the bottom of the fifth, Blanton had given up a pair of solo home runs, including a pinch hit homer to Eric Hinske in the top of the fifth. When Blanton stepped to the plate, there were two outs and the Phillies were just thinking about turning the batting order over for the sixth inning.
Blanton thought otherwise, crushing a fastball over the left field wall and in the process giving Rays' pitcher Edwin Jackson the most embarassing moment of his young career. It's not a stretch to say this was the biggest hit of Blanton's life, considering he hadn't hit a home run since high school.
Of course, Blanton wasn't the only one to deliver for the Phillies. Ryan Howard emerged onto the scene in a big way, blasting two home runs for 5 RBI. His first home run, a three-run shot in the fourth inning, gave the Phillies a commanding 5-1 lead. His second, a two-run bomb in the eighth, well, that was just for fun.
After struggling to capitalize with runners in scoring position, the Phillies finally put questions about their offense to rest, racking up 10 runs on four home runs. Meanwhile, the highly-touted Rays defense began to show cracks, as Akinori Iwanura committed two costly errors.
By winning the first two home games of the series, the Phillies have put themselves in great position to win the franchise's second title and the city's first since 1983. Cole Hamels takes the hill tomorrow against Scott Kazmir in a Game 1 rematch. That game went in the Phillies' favor and with the offense finally clicking, no one would be surprised to see Philadelphia close out the series in five games.
It should just be a matter of the Phillies keeping their composure, and no one has looked more composed this October than Cole Hamels.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Ruiz Leads Phillies to Wild Win; Phils Take 2-1 Lead
They say that timing is everything. No one knows that better right now than Carlos Ruiz.
Ruiz was the hero of tonight's epic Phillies victory, with a long home run and a very short single. After a sub-par regular season in which he hit just .219 with 4 home runs, Carlos Ruiz has been a man possessed in the World Series. Even before tonight's game, he had been one of the few Phillies having consistently good at-bats, having gone 2 for 2 with two doubles and two walks in Game 2. And yet, it seemed as if the Rays hadn't noticed.
Now I think they've noticed. Ruiz got everyone's attention in the second inning when he hit a solo home run, giving the Phillies a 2-1 lead. And he came up big in the end as well, delivering a game-winning RBI single...on a ball that couldn't have traveled more than 45 feet.
Of course, the Phillies never would have been in position to win it were it not for a very strong outing from Jamie Moyer, making his World Series debut at the tender age of 45. There were question marks surrounding Moyer due to his incoming 0-2 record in the 2008 postseason, including an abysmal performance in the NLCS in which he lasted just 1 1/3 innings.
But if anyone could shake off such a poor outing, it's the elder statesman of the team. Moyer limited the Rays to one run through the first six innings and entered the seventh with a 4-1 lead, thanks in part to solo home runs from Ruiz, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard (whose home run was his first since September 26th).
Carl Crawford led off the seventh for the Rays and decided to make Moyer earn his keep, attempting to bunt for a base hit down the first base line. Moyer took off, scooped the ball up in his glove, and dove as he flipped it straight from the glove to Howard. Howard caught it barehanded, just in time to beat Crawford. It was the greatest fielding play of the 2008 postseason, but there was just one problem. First base umpire Tom Hallion ruled Crawford safe. Replays would show that Moyer's throw did indeed beat Crawford, though not by much, but nonetheless Crawford remained on first when the dust settled.
He wouldn't stay there for long, however. The next batter, Dioner Navarro, ripped a double to left field, advancing Crawford to third. Moyer then got Gabe Gross to ground out, but allowed a run to score in the process. Charlie Manuel had seen enough and brought in Chad Durbin, who allowed another RBI groundout, then walked Willy Aybar. Scott Eyre then entered the game and struck out Akinori Iwanura to end the inning. Instead of a comfortable three-run lead, Hallion's blown call allowed the Rays to climb with one.
The precarious lead would not hold as B.J. Upton used his raw speed and baserunning instincts to terrorize the Phillies in the eighth. Upton led off the inning with an infield single, then stole second. He then stole third and made his way home on a wild throw by Ruiz, tying the game.
It would have been a heartbreaking loss for the Phillies and one that has been all too typical of this franchise and this city. At this point it became a showdown between the two bullpens, and the Rays blinked first.
In the ninth, defensive replacement Eric Bruntlett, who had a pinch hit home run in Game 2, was hit by J.P. Howell's pitch to lead off the inning. Grant Balfour replaced Howell and threw a wild pitch. Bruntlett advanced to second, then took third as well as Navarro's throw to second was off-target. With the winning run 90 feet away and no outs, Joe Maddon opted for the unorthodox. Maddon called for intentional walks of Shane Victorino and pinch-hitter Greg Dobbs, setting up a force out at home. He then called Ben Zobrist in from right field to form a five-man infield.
One has to admire Maddon's creativity, but in this case it didn't pay off. Ruiz stepped to the plate looking to be the hero. This would have terrified Phillies fans as recently as a week ago, but ever since his home run, fans realized this was not the same Carlos Ruiz who entered the All-Star break with a .202 batting average.
All he needed to do was make solid contact, and he managed that, chopping a grounder down the third base line. Evan Longoria charged and went for the force at home; the Rays' only chance. He attempted to loft the ball over Bruntlett's head, into the glove of Navarro, but instead the throw sailed well over Navarro's head and Bruntlett scored, sending the Philadelphia crowd into pandemonium.
The Phillies were supposed to crumble after Moyer was robbed of that crucial out in the seventh inning. When Upton tied the game with his baserunning prowess, the Rays were supposed to steal the momentum and steal the series. But Carlos Ruiz stood in the way, delivering perhaps the biggest little hit in franchise history.
Two more wins to go.
Ruiz was the hero of tonight's epic Phillies victory, with a long home run and a very short single. After a sub-par regular season in which he hit just .219 with 4 home runs, Carlos Ruiz has been a man possessed in the World Series. Even before tonight's game, he had been one of the few Phillies having consistently good at-bats, having gone 2 for 2 with two doubles and two walks in Game 2. And yet, it seemed as if the Rays hadn't noticed.
Now I think they've noticed. Ruiz got everyone's attention in the second inning when he hit a solo home run, giving the Phillies a 2-1 lead. And he came up big in the end as well, delivering a game-winning RBI single...on a ball that couldn't have traveled more than 45 feet.
Of course, the Phillies never would have been in position to win it were it not for a very strong outing from Jamie Moyer, making his World Series debut at the tender age of 45. There were question marks surrounding Moyer due to his incoming 0-2 record in the 2008 postseason, including an abysmal performance in the NLCS in which he lasted just 1 1/3 innings.
But if anyone could shake off such a poor outing, it's the elder statesman of the team. Moyer limited the Rays to one run through the first six innings and entered the seventh with a 4-1 lead, thanks in part to solo home runs from Ruiz, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard (whose home run was his first since September 26th).
Carl Crawford led off the seventh for the Rays and decided to make Moyer earn his keep, attempting to bunt for a base hit down the first base line. Moyer took off, scooped the ball up in his glove, and dove as he flipped it straight from the glove to Howard. Howard caught it barehanded, just in time to beat Crawford. It was the greatest fielding play of the 2008 postseason, but there was just one problem. First base umpire Tom Hallion ruled Crawford safe. Replays would show that Moyer's throw did indeed beat Crawford, though not by much, but nonetheless Crawford remained on first when the dust settled.
He wouldn't stay there for long, however. The next batter, Dioner Navarro, ripped a double to left field, advancing Crawford to third. Moyer then got Gabe Gross to ground out, but allowed a run to score in the process. Charlie Manuel had seen enough and brought in Chad Durbin, who allowed another RBI groundout, then walked Willy Aybar. Scott Eyre then entered the game and struck out Akinori Iwanura to end the inning. Instead of a comfortable three-run lead, Hallion's blown call allowed the Rays to climb with one.
The precarious lead would not hold as B.J. Upton used his raw speed and baserunning instincts to terrorize the Phillies in the eighth. Upton led off the inning with an infield single, then stole second. He then stole third and made his way home on a wild throw by Ruiz, tying the game.
It would have been a heartbreaking loss for the Phillies and one that has been all too typical of this franchise and this city. At this point it became a showdown between the two bullpens, and the Rays blinked first.
In the ninth, defensive replacement Eric Bruntlett, who had a pinch hit home run in Game 2, was hit by J.P. Howell's pitch to lead off the inning. Grant Balfour replaced Howell and threw a wild pitch. Bruntlett advanced to second, then took third as well as Navarro's throw to second was off-target. With the winning run 90 feet away and no outs, Joe Maddon opted for the unorthodox. Maddon called for intentional walks of Shane Victorino and pinch-hitter Greg Dobbs, setting up a force out at home. He then called Ben Zobrist in from right field to form a five-man infield.
One has to admire Maddon's creativity, but in this case it didn't pay off. Ruiz stepped to the plate looking to be the hero. This would have terrified Phillies fans as recently as a week ago, but ever since his home run, fans realized this was not the same Carlos Ruiz who entered the All-Star break with a .202 batting average.
All he needed to do was make solid contact, and he managed that, chopping a grounder down the third base line. Evan Longoria charged and went for the force at home; the Rays' only chance. He attempted to loft the ball over Bruntlett's head, into the glove of Navarro, but instead the throw sailed well over Navarro's head and Bruntlett scored, sending the Philadelphia crowd into pandemonium.
The Phillies were supposed to crumble after Moyer was robbed of that crucial out in the seventh inning. When Upton tied the game with his baserunning prowess, the Rays were supposed to steal the momentum and steal the series. But Carlos Ruiz stood in the way, delivering perhaps the biggest little hit in franchise history.
Two more wins to go.
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