2009 Phillies Season Preview

Tonight the 2009 baseball season begins, as the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies take on the Atlanta Braves. Note that this is Year Two of The People's Phillies Blog and the Phillies are 1 for 1 in championships in that time. Coincidence? You decide.

Anyway, we now present our 2009 Phillies season preview, as only The People's Phillies Blog can bring you. We compiled a list of 16 key questions and each gave our answers.

1. Who was the most important off-season acquisition?

Jeff
Raul Ibanez. Not because he’s such a great addition for them, but because they will be asking themselves, why did we overpay for an aging left-handed hitter when we could have waited a little longer and signed the right-handed hitting, and loyal (despite his erratic treatment by fans) Pat Burrell for much cheaper? Ibanez is 36, has hit over .300 only once in his career (I make that point because one of his supposed perks is that he’s a contact hitter), had a worse fielding percentage than Burrell last year, and unless Jayson Werth has a breakout year, makes the middle of the lineup all lefties. I doubt the signing will do too much damage in the long run, but it was a curious way to handle the hole in left field.

Charles
Park. Ibanez is obviously a big question mark, but on a given day it is doubtful that the Phillies will sink of swim depending on how he does. If he has his usual kind of year it will be a very good contribution, but he won’t be the cornerstone of the Phillies’ strong lineup. If Park has a good year, he’ll be an enormous help, as good starting pitching is like hen’s teeth in today’s MLB. The Phillies won the World Series last season even though Adam Eaton pitched a significant number of games for them. A reliable fifth starter could be a big part of making winning the division a cakewalk. However, if he has a poor season – as he has done before, his famous name might mean he gets left in rotation too long and hurts the team more than he should be allowed to. Either way, his effect on the season will probably be big.

Brian
Chan Ho Park. As Pat Burrell’s replacement, Ibanez will garner much of the attention, but Ibanez is just another hitter in an already strong lineup. Park will be taking the hill every five days and trying to give the Phillies a measure of consistency from the fifth slot in the rotation; something they have not had in recent years. One could argue that, as the fifth starter, the Phillies don’t need Park to do that much and that if he struggles early, he can easily be replaced by one of his competitors for the spot (Happ, Kendrick, Carrasco). But the fact is that Park won the job and the Phillies aren’t going to tear it away from him without giving him a legitimate chance. Plus, while the Phillies may have an idea of what they’re getting from Park (Well I have an idea anyway…), Kendrick struggled late last year and in spring training and Happ and Carrasco are basically unknowns. Also factor in how absurdly lucky the Phillies were last year with the health of their rotation and it stands to reason that Park could be starting games for the Phillies for a good while, even if he struggles.

2. How has Ruben Amaro done so far?

Jeff
Amaro appears committed to making the team older. The youngest player he has brought in was Ronny Paulino at age 27, and then he turned around and traded him for a relief pitcher in his 30's. But that makes some sense, considering that his main goal after winning the World Series should be to keep the team at a championship level, and when most teams are looking to get over the hump into the playoffs, they consider veterans the final pieces. Cutting Adam Eaton and Geoff Jenkins were gracious moves. He knew the team wasn’t going to need them in a major capacity and it allowed them to seek more worthwhile opportunities. He hasn’t acted like a first-time general manager, and it’s clear that he took knowledge away from working with Pat Gillick.

Charles
Well, the Phillies haven’t lost once since he’s been GM! As much as it’s possible to tell before the season begins, Amaro has not been too impressive. He came in with promises of close consultation with Our Hero Pat Gillick, but there have not been too many signs of that. Whether or not you think Ibanez was a good acquisition, you have to admit that Amaro humiliated himself with the deal, overpaying for Ibanez and letting Burrell get away ridiculously cheap. It was mishandled in any estimation. The pickup of Park is the kind of gamble that Gillick might have made on a bad day, but it doesn’t impress me as a serious rotation move; Park’s career has been too spotted. At least he got rid of Adam Eaton. Somebody had to do that.

Brian
Obviously it’s not fair to grade a GM before his first team has even taken the field, but hey, this is the blogosphere. It’s an unfair place. Thus far it’s hard to be overly excited by Amaro’s off-season moves. He certainly didn’t make any splashy ones, but then again, when you’ve got the vast majority of the defending World Champions returning, you don’t need to make major renovations. That said the moves he has made have been questionable. Letting Burrell go seemed like the best option at the start of the off-season, figuring he is (or soon will be) past his prime and would have been overpriced…but then Amaro went and signed an even older Raul Ibanez to a 3-year/$30 million deal. Again, this didn’t seem ridiculous at the time, but as the off-season went on and teams were clearly unwilling to spend, it became apparent that the Phillies likely could have made a much more…shall we say fiscally responsible…option. When Burrell signed with the Rays for 2 years/$16 million, Amaro officially looked like an idiot. I didn’t know the economy would affect free agency this much, but shouldn’t the Phillies have seen this coming? I’m also not in love with the addition of Park, a pitcher who has only fared well in Dodger Stadium and was terrible as a starter in Texas. We’ll see what happens, but for now I’m less than thrilled with Amaro’s work.

3. How much better are the Mets?

Jeff
The Phillies still have a more well-rounded pitching staff than the Mets, especially once they get J.C. Romero back. John Maine and Oliver Perez have shown flashes of greatness throughout their careers, but have never been consistent. Also, while the Mets have improved their bullpen, it still isn’t very deep. Beyond K-Rod, Putz, and Feliciano, there’s not much to be worried about. The Mets still have a great offense, but the only significant change was the recent addition of an aging Gary Sheffield. The only reason it seems they might do better than last year is that Jerry Manuel seems to be a good fit to coach the team.

Charles
Considerably. A major problem for New York last year was their terribly unreliable bullpen. Some high-profile additions will almost certainly change that. Their offense will continue to be strong and there will be no slowing down Jose Reyes, but perhaps an aging lineup and fewer players on hot streaks will make them weaker as a team. Their starting pitching will remain strong, but I think that the Phillies will remain a match for them in all important categories. Many don’t believe in chemistry, but if it’s a factor, it has defiantly been missing for New York in the past couple years. If they can pull their clubhouse together more, it could make a significant difference.

Brian
Decidedly better. The Mets one major weakness last year was their bullpen and they clearly addressed that, adding K-Rod and Putz. However another issue the Mets have had in recent years was the streakiness of their offense, and that’s not going away. Reyes and Wright could well improve at this point, but the rest of the team is likely to get worse, if anything. Carlos Delgado had an outstanding 2008 season after a lousy 2007, but does anyone really think the 36-year old is going to do that again this year? Even Beltran saw his numbers decline last year. No one is complaining about 27 HR and 112 RBI, but consider the fact that he did that in 161 games last year, when he put up 33-112 the year before…in 15 fewer games. Meanwhile there is not a clear advantage between the Phillies and Mets rotations. While the Mets will be improved thanks to the bullpen, there is little reason to believe they’ll be much better than the Phillies.

4. What other NL East team could pose a threat?

Jeff
If the Marlins are healthy all year, they could pose a threat, the way the Marlins franchise tends to do every so often. They have a good young rotation, a lot of intriguing players in the offense, including Hanley Ramirez, Cameron Maybin, and Emilio Bonaficio, and even the bullpen has improved and now has some veterans including Leo Nunez, Kiko Calero, and Scott Proctor. I think they’re more likely to be a legitimate threat in a year or two, but they could surprise this year.

Charles
The Nationals definitely pose a threat…to do so badly they have to move back to Montreal. I think the Marlins will once again do better than expected and the Braves, though they are not a contender, will be rebuilt enough with their improved pitching to make it much closer to a four-way race this year.

Brian
The Marlins could be dangerous, as they led the NL East for a good part of last season, but with such a young pitching staff it’s hard to see them beating out the Phillies or Mets. A bigger threat might be the Braves and their revamped rotation. Derek Lowe was great last season and Javier Vasquez could benefit from a return to the NL. Meanwhile the offense could well improve with better production out of Casey Kotchman and Jeff Francoeur (who had a good September and is due for a bounce-back year), not to mention the addition of Garrett Anderson. I don’t think the Braves are at the level of the Phillies and Mets, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they made it interesting.

5. Is the lineup too unbalanced with all the lefties?

Jeff
It's only a problem if they’re all in a row, which is a distinct possibility. Without considering what side of the plate they bat from, it would make the most sense to put Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Ibanez in the 3-4-5 spots. But then all a team needs to do is put in a lefty specialist for an inning and the heart of the Phillies order is done for. In fact, the Phillies lineup could be divided into sections: the switch hitting top of the order (Rollins, Victorino), the left handed middle of the order (Utley, Howard, Ibanez), and the right handed hitting bottom of the order (Werth, Feliz, Ruiz). However, if Jayson Werth steps up and becomes a true offensive threat, the Phillies could bat him fifth and Ibanez sixth. Technically, the lineup is perfectly balanced between lefties and righties, but the question is who bats where?

Charles
Perhaps a little, but it shouldn’t be a problem unless Manuel and the Phillies make it one. With Rollins and Victorino switch-hitting, Jayson Werth looking like a possibility to be a strong regular, and Greg Dobbs continuing to platoon in for Pedro Feliz, the Phillies should have a varied enough line-up. That said, with the kind of power the Phillies’ lineup presents, they should be able to put enough hitters in the box who can hit lefties or righties that it shouldn’t even be an issue.

Brian
Not really. While swapping Burrell for the left-handed Ibanez seemed to make the Phillies far too susceptible to left-handed pitching, it’s easy to forget that the Phillies have a couple of switch hitters in their lineup. Rollins and Victorino both hit better from the right side and Jayson Werth absolutely hammers left-handed pitching. Also factor in right-handed Pedro Feliz, who will likely once again platoon at third with Greg Dobbs. So basically the Phillies have three switch hitters (I’m counting the third baseman as a switch hitter since it’s a platoon), three lefties, and two righties. Against a left-handed pitcher, that comes out to five guys hitting from the right side, so that’s not bad at all. It’s also worth mentioning that Utley has always hit well against left-handed pitching.

6. Which player is the most likely to have a bounce-back season?

Jeff
Pedro Feliz was a disappointment last season offensively. As was the case with Aaron Roward, it looked like Charlie Manuel was making adjustments to Feliz’s hitting approach to make him less of a free-swinger. Rowand’s second year with the team was much better than the first, and it seems entirely possible that Feliz will respond similarly. If he does, he could become the most dangerous number seven hitter in the National League.

Charles
Chase Utley. Chase played much of last season injured and in pain, but he still managed to put up very impressive numbers. After recovering from his operation over the off-season, there is no reason to think he cannot bounce back with an even stronger season in 2009.

Brian
Jimmy Rollins. Last year Rollins got injured in April and never seemed quite right after that. He mustered only 11 HR and a .277 BA, after he dominated in his 2007 MVP season with 30 HR and a .296 BA. Coming in fully healthy, one has to think he’ll have a better year. Maybe he won’t go 30-30 again, but he should hit at least 20 HR.

7. Which player is the most likely to regress?

Jeff
Brad Lidge. Lidge will still be good, and he’ll probably remain one of the top closers in the National League, but the odds of two essentially perfect seasons in a row is extremely slim. He may not regress a whole lot, but he probably won’t be perfect again.

Charles
It's true that, technically, Brad Lidge will probably regress in that he is unlikely to be totally perfect again, but in all likelihood he’s still have a very good season. Sadly we’re more likely to see diminishing performances from third baseman Pedro Feliz. Feliz will turn 34 this year, and already saw his offensive numbers drop last year off from his final season in San Francisco. He defense, while very good, was not the perfect thing that it was made out to be. 2008 may just have been a slump for Pedro – and I hope it was – but we must consider the possibility that we are looking at a declining career.

Brian
Chad Durbin. Everyone’s been saying Lidge and it’s true that it’s hard to imagine him having such a great season again, but, while he’ll probably blow a save here or there, there’s little reason to believe his ERA and strikeout numbers will suffer. More likely he just doesn’t catch quite so many breaks in his off-nights (Victorino’s throw sails wide of the plate in Atlanta, Rollins can’t turn the game-ending double play against Washington, etc.) A better candidate for a drop-off could be Durbin. He’s coming off the best season of his career, but he pitched very poorly down the stretch. He posted a 1.72 ERA in July and then began to fall apart, with a 4.32 ERA in August. He then finished the regular season with a 6.94 ERA in September/October. Frankly, even when he was pitching well his numbers always seemed a bit deceptive since he gave up a ton of inherited runs. Did he just run out of gas late in the year due to overuse, did NL hitters figure him out, or did his luck just run dry. Hard to say, but we’ll certainly find out this year, especially with J.C. Romero out for the first 50 games.


8. Who should be the fifth starter?

Jeff
Chan Ho Park earned the chance to be the fifth starter. Whether or not he is able to hold onto the job is another issue. In spring training, most of Happ and Park’s numbers were comparable. They both pitched about 20 innings, opposing batters hit about .240 against them, and they both allowed about 20 hits. But Park had more strikeouts (25 to Happ’s 14), issued only 2 walks (to Happ’s 6), and had a lower ERA (2.53 to Happ’s 3.15). Given about the same amount of playing time, Park outperformed Happ. But I imagine Happ will get a chance to be in the rotation at some point during the season due to injuries, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Park eventually winds up in the bullpen. It’s a very good situation for the team to be in.

Charles
In short, the hot arm. Manuel is right to start the season with Chan Ho Park as his fifth starter considering how well he did in spring training. If that translates to his regular-season appearances, the Phillies will have a huge asset on their hands. Of course, as Brian pointed out, it could very well not, considering that a great year from Park would be unusual considering his record and the fact that Citizen's Bank Park heavily favors hitters. What that means to me is that Charlie Manuel needs to be ready to pull Park from the rotation as soon as his pitching performance stops cutting the mustard. That should be true of Park, Happ, Kendrick, or whoever during the course of the season.

Brian
J.A. Happ. Based on spring training, Park certainly deserves the honor. That said, everything about his track record suggests that he will struggle in a hitter’s park like CBP. Meanwhile, his performance last year with the Dodgers showed that he can be effective out of the bullpen. Happ, on the other hand, performed fairly well as a starter for the Phillies last year. He wasn’t amazing but he kept the team in games and, while he is inexperienced, it’s not like he’s a kid at age 26. Happ will likely pitch out of the bullpen, which sounds good on paper (especially with Romero out), but he’s never had much success as a reliever.

9. How much will the team miss J.C. Romero?

Jeff
Ryan Madson had a great year last year, and if he can get through the first 50 games taking on a regular eighth inning role, the team will be fine. Scott Eyre was a great addition for the team late last year and should have no problem being the main left-hander until Romero gets back. He also has the benefit of two other lefties in the pen with Jack Taschner and J.A. Happ. The bullpen is good enough that it should be able to hold up without Romero, but when he gets back, it’ll be a huge boost.

Charles
Romero will be missed and his absence will put the pressure on people like Madson and Eyre. The Phillies had the best bullpen in baseball last year, though, and ideally that will mean that it can take a hit like the loss of Romero without collapsing and costing the team too much. Time will tell the true effects, but J. C. Romero is an extremely useful part of the team who we'll want back before we can have him.

Brian
Quite a bit. Romero was superb in 2008 and has helped carry the Phillies bullpen in the last two seasons. Last year his job was made easier by the emergence of Madson and the addition of Lidge, but he was still THE guy sent in to deal with tough left-handed or switch hitters (and the NL East has plenty of them). Scott Eyre pitched well for the Phillies last year, but it’s hard to imagine him handling the workload that Romero got. Plus Eyre is strictly a left-handed specialist and won’t be asked to pitch the entire 7th or 8th inning very often. This means that there will be even more pressure on Madson to repeat his 2008 success. Durbin will likely also be called upon more often than many Phillies fans would prefer. The good news is that it’s the first 50 games of the season and not the last, so the guys who will get worked extra hard until Romero comes back will at least be fresh.

10. Can the Phillies left field defense really get worse with Pat Burrell gone?

Jeff
Ibanez is older and actually had a worse fielding percentage than Burrell last year. They also don’t have a great defensive outfielder anywhere on their roster. Eric Bruntlett and Miguel Cairo are fine, but they’re not outfielders by trade. At least Manuel is more justified in using either one more regularly as a defensive replacement since he has the other to be the backup utility infielder. It would behoove them to acquire a Chris Roberson/Michael Bourn type during the season.

Charles
On a literal level, the answer to that question is yes. In fact, I actually noticed that Burrell's fielding seemed to improve last season. Pat's problems in left were that he was very slow and unwilling to take risks to get to balls, but on a technical level he was not actually bad-fielding player. Burrell had good defensive instincts and got good jumps. Ibanez is known for being much faster than Pat, but by reputation and according to defensive statistics (which many choose not to put much stake in), he is not really a much better fielder. That would seem to leave poor instincts and technical fielding skills as the reason, though I can't say that for sure as I have not watched him play much. Given the choice, I'd rather have the reliability of a capable but slow Pat Burrell than the unpredictability of a faster but older and possibly less skilled Raul Ibanez.

Brian
A little. There’s been much debate on this issue. Burrell was a very poor fielder, simply due to his speed (or lack thereof) so logic would have it that Ibanez should be an upgrade for that reason alone. However, a large part of defense comes down to instincts and (to Burrell’s credit) he usually got decent jumps on the ball. Ibanez…not so much. Unfortunately there still isn’t that much in the way of conclusive defensive statistics, but a fairly reliable stat is defensive range. Ibanez has an average range of 96 in his career as a left fielder (100 being average). Burrell also has a career range of 96. Of course, Burrell is much younger than Ibanez and Ibanez’s main advantage over Burrell is his speed, which is more likely to regress than Burrell’s instincts. Another potential pitfall is that, with the departure of So Taguchi, the Phillies' only decent defensive replacement is now Eric Bruntlett. Bruntlett was fine in that role last year, but he’s also the only backup middle infielder and worthwhile pinch runner, so Manuel could be hesitant to use him that way.

11. Who will be the Phillies (and possibly the NL) MVP?

Jeff
While any of Utley, Howard, or Rollins are viable candidates, it always seems to make the biggest difference what Rollins does. Rollins’ production would be the hardest to replace and if he’s healthy all year, could produce the kind of numbers he had in his other MVP year. Rollins is the sparkplug of the offense more than Utley or Howard have ever been (except for a few timely Howard home runs).

Charles
Shane Victorino has a huge chance to break out as a major star this season. He's a player in his prime with rising average and power numbers, plus, obviously, first-class speed and defensive skills. Plus, if you believe in clutch, you probably use some of Shane's performances at the end of last season and in the postseason to prove it to people who don't. He could easily top .300 this year with home runs in double digits while chasing 40 stolen bases and playing phenomenally in the field. He might just as easily have on off year, but I think that all makes him a definite player to watch.

Brian
Ryan Howard. Howard finally got his contract extension and came into camp slimmed down, but still displayed as much power as ever. He has dominated spring training thus far and with the burden of an expiring contract removed, he is poised to have a phenomenal season. I wrote about this in detail shortly after news broke of his 3-year contract. Here it is again in case you missed it.

12. Will there be a championship hangover?

Jeff
The Phillies have started off slow in the past few years, so it wouldn’t be surprising if that were the case again. There may also be some lineup tinkering depending on the addition of the left-handed Ibanez and how Jayson Werth responds to increased expectations on offense. Also, they won’t have Cole Hamels and J.C. Romero immediately. They may also be more cautious with Hamels and it may take time before they are comfortable enough to fully use him.

Charles
I doubt it. The Phillies are in a competitive division, and by and large are the kind of hardworking team not to let the championship relax them too much. That said, the Phillies have been streaky in the past few years and have a tendency to get off to unimpressive starts. They have to be careful not to let the added pressure of the World Championship weigh too heavily on them.

Brian
Depends on what you mean by hangover. The Phillies could easily have yet another slow start, but I doubt it will have anything to do with last year. This is not the type of team to slack off and if anything they should be fired up to start the season due to virtually everyone picking the Mets to finish ahead of the defending champs.

13. How will Howard’s contract extension influence his performance?

Jeff
He may become pressured to justify it, just as he was pressured to get it. His numbers have been extremely similar the past two years, so even if he was in worse shape in 2008 than in 2007, he seems to produce the same amount. He simply may be a 45 home run, 140 RBI, and 199 SO kind of guy. If Howard’s performance improves this year, it will probably have more to do with him being in better shape.

Charles
It's a psychological question so it's hard to say for sure, but Howard seems like the kind of player who is always working -- sometimes a little too hard. The contract extension might be just what he needs to give him enough security so that he doesn't work himself into a rut trying to impress, and his work ethic will keep him from resting too much on his laurels. Howard is an established star, and now he has the freedom to go out on the field and show it without having to prove himself every day.

Brian
While plenty of players have been known to struggle after receiving a huge payday, I don’t expect that from Howard. In fact, quite the opposite. As I wrote earlier, Howard has historically struggled when playing for a contract so this should allow him to focus on just being the best hitter he can be, rather than trying to pull home runs all the time and hit the ball a mile. That’s not to say he won’t rack up 150+ strikeouts, but I would expect his batting average to hover around .280 for the better part of the season.

14. Which Brett Myers will the Phillies get?

Jeff
Myers was remarkably consistent last year and pitched with a different sort of poise than at any point in his career. It really seemed like he figured something out. Myers will also be a free agent and he may have that extra incentive to produce. Myers is in position to have a really good year.

Charles
Both -- but I think we'll see more of Good Brett Myers than Bad Brett Myers. Brett is a pitcher who clearly has the skills to be among the top few in baseball, but at looks at this point as if he will never completely eliminate the problems that arise with his mechanics and anger management enough to be completely consistent. However, he's made a lot of progress since the beginning of last season, and I see no reason why he shouldn't continue that and give us a very strong season overall.

Brian
There are few players harder to predict than Brett Myers. In the last two years he has been the closer, pitched in the minors, and both dominated and got dominated as a Major League starter, so I’d be lying if I was to say I could tell you what he’ll do this year. But then again, I have to at least try. Myers is coming in healthy, after a full year of starting, and with confidence after a brilliant second half and a solid postseason. With a renewed confidence and in a contract year, Myers should be the #2 starter that the Phillies need him to be.

15. Was Jamie Moyer’s multiyear contract a wise move?

Jeff
It was a good thing that the team kept him. It’s hard to know how much longer he’ll be pitching effectively, but even if he retires he would be a good person to immediately shift into a coaching job. He has a lot to offer as a mentor to younger pitchers, and if he’s able to pitch effectively for the duration of his contract, that’s great. The only issue with signing him is that it takes a spot in the rotation away from a younger pitcher, such as J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco. In a year or two, a rotation of Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Happ, and Carrasco is a very intriguing thought. Kyle Kendrick should be back in the mix soon as well. But having Moyer as a part of the organization is worthwhile.

Charles
There is always an element of risk in signing a pitcher Moyer's age to the kind of contract he has received, but if you are gong to sign a 46 year-old, Moyer is about the safest 46 year-old you could possibly sign. He has never been a power pitcher, he's great in the clubhouse (he's been called the Phillies' second pitching coach), and he has only grown more and more consistent as he has accumulated knowledge over the years. Someday Moyer will have to retire, but he hasn't shown any sign of diminished skills yet and he's been a vital part of the Phillies' successful past two seasons, so keeping him in the rotation looks like a smart move.

Brian
Yes. Moyer had an excellent season last year and The Man Who Broke PECOTA should be expected to produce yet again this year. His numbers will likely get a bit worse, as far as ERA, but with no injury history and a pitching repertoire that relies almost entirely on guile, there’s little reason to believe he’ll be much worse this year or next year than he was in 2008. Then of course there are his off-the-field contributions. Having Moyer is like having an extra pitching coach and I don’t think anyone can dispute that he’s helped along Cole Hamels’ progress.

16. How much will the Phillies miss Michael Bourn?

Jeff
As I mentioned with Sheffield, Bourn is exactly the kind of player the Phillies need. Actually, if they still had Michael Bourn, it’s possible that he would have replaced Burrell as the third outfielder and they wouldn’t have had to spend money on Ibanez. Bourn will be always be missed.

Charles
In all seriousness, the Phillies don’t have a player like Michael Bourn this year. Not that they’ll need one as much as they need a player like Brad Lidge – but if there’s a way to get him back or someone like him it can only help us when we need a fast man like Bourn.

Brian
While we at The People’s Phillies Blog will always miss Michael Bourn, the Phillies could actually really use him this year. Right now the Phillies have hardly any bench speed (the one speedy bench player we have is Bruntlett, who is not an accomplished base stealer). Bourn struggled as a starter in Houston, but he would be a superb asset to the Phillies bench. Of course, we’re pretty happy with the result of the Bourn-Lidge trade.