Monday, April 12, 2010

Non-Phillies Pick of the Week: Week 2

Last week we predicted the results of the season opening Yankees-Red Sox game. The Red Sox took the game and only Charles had the foresight to pick them. Here's a look at the results so far:

This week we're picking Friday night's Royals-Twins game (because, let's face it, how many more chances will we have to pick a Royals game before they become irrelevant?).

Royals (3-4) at Twins (5-2)
Zach Greinke (0-1, 3.55 ERA) vs. Scott Baker (1-1, 3.86 ERA)


I like the Royals here. Yes, Minnesota has the better team, but this is just one game and the pitching matchup favors Kansas City. While Greinke's overall numbers against the Twins are nothing to write home about, he has fared extremely well against Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Mauer's career OPS against Greinke is a lowly .582 and Morneau has fared even worse at .417.


Minnesota is off to a hot 6-2 start compared to the Royals at 3-4. Both Greinke and Baker have solid career numbers against the opposing team, but Minnesota's bullpen has been fantastic and Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are off to hot starts. Kansas City's bullpen has not been so good, and while Rick Ankiel and Scott Podsednik are hitting .333 and .444, respectively, they don't exactly strike fear in the hearts of their opponents the way Mauer and Morneau do when they're hot.


I'm picking the Twins in this matchup. Both teams have talented starters off to decent starts this season, and Greinke has the edge as a pure pitcher (though how much of an aberration his Cy Young season was still remains to be seen). However, the defending AL Central champions still have a lineup that can score off an ace like Greinke, but the Royals' lineup doesn't guarantee that they'll give that ace much of any run support.

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